Scott Abramson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Rochester. He is an empirical political scientist working at the intersection of International Relations and Comparative Politics.
Distrust, not Dislike
Abstract: Affective polarization-the tendency of ordinary Americans to "dislike and distrust" members of the out party-is an increasingly salient feature of politics. We provide "skin in the game" behavioral measures that characterize-as distinct objects-first and second-order beliefs about reciprocity and other-regarding preferences. That is, we estimate parameters that separately describe dislike and distrust. We show that partisanship drives a large wedge in trust between out-partisans. This effect is not driven by perceptions of out-party ideology, beliefs about out-partisan demographics, or sentiment toward elites. Although we find evidence of in-party social preferences (e.g., a relative preference for co-partisans), this is driven wholly by beliefs about outparty demographics. In sum, affect is best characterized as a distrust of out-partisans. Finally, we describe how our behavioral estimates load onto thermostatic measures and show that beliefs about reciprocity are a considerably stronger predictor of this standard measure than are other-regarding preferences.
