Upcoming Program In Statistics and Methodology (PRISM) Events

October 5, 2017
Derby Hall

PRISM (Program In Statistics and Methodology) will be hosting two events coming up as part of the PRISM Lecture Series

October 12th from 2-3pm in Derby Hall, Room 2130

  • Shawna Metzger is a post-doctoral fellow in the Political Science department and a lecturer in the National University of Singapore’s University Scholars Programme. Dr. Metzger will be giving a talk on using Cox duration models when analyzing binary time-series cross-sectional data. The abstract can be found below:

    Logit and probit (L/P) models are a mainstay of binary time-series cross-sectional analyses (BTSCS). Researchers include cubic splines or time polynomials to acknowledge the temporal element inherent in these data. However, L/P models cannot easily accommodate three other aspects of the data’s temporality: whether covariate effects are conditional on time, whether the process of interest is causally complex, and whether our functional form assumption regarding time’s effect is correct. Failing to account for any of these issues amounts to misspecification bias, threatening our inferences’ validity. We argue scholars should consider using Cox duration models when analyzing BTSCS data, as they create fewer opportunities for such misspecification bias, while also having the ability to assess the same hypotheses as L/P. In addition, we offer a new interpretation technique for Cox models—transition probabilities—to make their model results more readily interpretable. We use applications from judicial politics and interstate conflict to demonstrate our points.

November 9th from 1-2pm in Derby Hall, Room 2130

  • Tidyverse: Daniel Kent is a PhD student in the Political Science department and junior fellow with the Program in Statistics and Methodology (PRISM). He will be giving a talk on the tidyverse in R. The tidyverse is an increasingly popular collection of R packages which interact to streamline data cleaning, interpretation, and modeling. These packages include but are not limited to: ggplot2, dplyr, tidyr, and modelr.