Recent Analyses
Three working papers based on the FCNES data are currently in progress:
1. A study of the effects of the “divisive primary” between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Abstract: The 2008 Democratic primary was marked by divisiveness as notable as its historic candidates. And while Barack Obama won the general election comfortably, political scientists would be remiss in studying divisive primary effects only when they are electorally decisive. Accordingly, we examine this largely-forgotten storyline and search for these effects throughout different segments of the electorate. Our analysis, focusing on Franklin County in the bellwether state of Ohio, spans multiple levels. First, we use aggregate data and ecological inference to ascertain levels of defection, abstention, and early voting among Clinton supporters. Next, we examine the prevalence of yard signs displayed in Clinton and Obama strongholds. Finally, we analyze original survey data from individuals who displayed yard signs, examining affective evaluations and participatory acts within this especially engaged population. Overall, the evidence suggests that the divisive primary produced lasting effects and might have cost Obama the presidency under different circumstances.
REVISITING THE DIVISIVE PRIMARY HYPOTHESIS: 2008 AND THE CLINTON-OBAMA NOMINATION BATTLE
2. A reappraisal of the literature on expressive and instrumental motives for political participation.
Abstract: The paradox of political participation is usually applied to discussions of voter turnout and vote choice – participatory acts which are private and imbued with the duties and stigmas associated with the democratic ethos. While expressive accounts of voting have been proposed as an alternative to earlier, more instrumental accounts (thus, "solving" the paradox), these accounts to do not export straightforwardly to other political acts, ranging from rallies to campaign contributions, where goals and plausible benefits differ. In this paper we argue that symbolic participation (in this case, placing a yard sign on one’s property) presents a "fair test" in which we might observe expressive or instrumental motivations for participation. Posting a yard sign requires no special skills or resources, takes little time, may be costless, and importantly, is public and communicative. Using original, geo-coded data on symbolic participation in Franklin County, Ohio – and a matching survey on political attitudes and behaviors – we test hypotheses related to instrumental vs. expressive motivations as they relate to the structuring of attitudes and the prediction of various participatory acts.
3. A study of spatial patterns in the distribution of yard signs(NOT YET AVAILABLE)
Please check this space for future papers stemming from the FCNES. If you have any questions for the authors, feel free to contact the PIs.