Ohio
State University
Department
of Political Science
2140
Derby Hall
154
N. Oval Mall
Columbus, OH 43210
kennedy.310@osu.edu
(614) 537-6714
Download my vitae as a PDF document.
The
Ohio State University,
Columbus, OH
Ph.D.,
expected June 2008
Dissertation Title: Lifting the Curse: Distribution and Power in Petro-States.
Abstract: While the empirical correlation between fuel exports and authoritarianism has become conventional wisdom, influencing both academics and policy-makers, the answer for why fuel exporters tend to be more authoritarian has remained elusive. My dissertation examines this question using a multi-method approach, including statistical analysis of 166 countries from 1965-2001, a formal model of government distribution, and an in-depth case study of Kazakhstan. I find that income from fuel exports is generally stabilizing, especially for authoritarian regimes, while fuel dependence is destabilizing, especially for democracies. The primary reason for this is the importance of government distribution in fuel exporting countries. In countries which have high per-capita fuel export income, fuel revenues are stabilizing for authoritarian regimes as they provide the resources for maintaining support. In countries which are heavily dependent on fuel exports in the economy, but have a relatively low per-capita income from those exports, the increased importance of distribution in the economy results in greater instability in democratic regimes, since it increases the temptation for both government and opposition parties to lock in their share of relatively scarce resources through exclusionary politics. Based on this, policy recommendations are made for methods of distribution that produce incentives more consistent with democratic governance.
Committee: Marcus Kurtz (chair), Timothy Frye, Janet Box-Steffensmeier, and Richard Gunther.
Research and Teaching Interests: Democratization and state building, authoritarian and leadership stability, natural resource politics, political economy, and post-Communist transitions and elections.
Methods Background and Interests: Formal theory, econometrics (advanced regression, panel data, duration analysis and mle), and qualitative methods.
M.A.,
3.9 GPA, 2004
Major
Field: Comparative Politics
Minor
Field: Political Economy
Jagiellonian
University, Krakow,
Poland
Certificate
in Polish language and culture, 2003
Truman
State University
B.A.
magna cum laude and general honors, 3.8 GPA, 2001
Major
Fields: Political Science and Russian
Minor
Field: International Studies
Institute of Youth, Moscow, Russia
Certificate
in Russian language and culture, 2001
Refereed Journal Publications________________________________________________________________________________
"Fragments
of Economic Accountability and Trade Policy," 2007, Foreign
Policy Analysis,
Vol. 3, No. 2: 145-169. [Link]
"A Colorless Election: The 2005 Presidential Elections in Kazakhstan and What it Means for the Future of the Opposition", 2006, Problems in Post-Communism, Vol. 53: 46-58. [Link]
“Mixed Electoral Systems, Super Presidentialism, Candidate Recruitment and Political Party Development in Russia, Ukraine, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan”, with John T. Ishiyama, 2001, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 53, No. 8: 1177-1191. [Link]
“Writing Rights: Factors Influencing the Strength of Rights Clauses in Post-Communist Countries”, with John T. Ishiyama, 2001, The Journal of Political Science, Vol. 29: 1-29. [Link]
Editor Reviewed Articles______________________________________________________________________________________
"Moldova: Contrary forces favour policy short-termism," 8 August 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Moldova: Press freedoms remain problematic," 18 July 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Moldova: Local Elections Show National Trends," 28 June 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, 9(15). [Link]
"Moldova: Communists lose ground in local elections," 25 June 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Moldova: Voronin pins hopes on encouraging investors.", 14 May 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Talk of Transdniester Agreement Sparks Speculation.", 3 May 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 11. (also produced for online and radio presentation) [Link]
"Moldova/Russia: Reported Transnistria deal is unlikely.", 27 April 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Counting Losses as Russian Wine Ban Lingers.", 4 April 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 10. (also produced for online and radio presentation) [Link]
"Moldova/Romania: Visa row may result in looser ties.", 30 March 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"What's Behind Harsh Criticism of Romania?", 22 March 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 1. [Link]
"Moldova: Government action hinders media freedom", 5 March 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Moldova's Broadcast Privatization -- Reform or Censorship?", 22 February 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 4. Re-published in The Moldova Foundation's Weekly News Bulletin, 27 February 2007, Vol. 3, No. 31. Re-published again in In Focus magazine. (also produced for online and radio presentation) [Link]
"An EU Invasion Waiting to Happen", 9 February 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 4. (also produced for online and radio presentation) [Link]
"Tricky year begins for new EU neighbour", 11 January 2007, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Unprecedented Opportunities, Challenges Posed by $1.2 Billion Aid Package", 5 January 2007, RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report, Vol. 9, No. 1. . [Link]
"Tirsapol line hardens ahead of negotiations", 21 December 2006, Oxford Analytica. [Link]
"Kazakhstan Learns to Love Borat", 29 November 2006, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. [Link]
"Vested Interests to Determine Kazakhstan's Presidential Race", with Ustina Markus and Nigmet Ibadildin, 30 November 2005, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. [Link]
Working Papers Under Review_________________________________________________________________________________
"Re-Conceptualizing the Social Requisites of Democratization: A Conditional Probability Analysis of Modernization Theory." [Link]
"Survival and Accountability: An Analysis of the Empirical Support for 'Selectorate Theory.'" [Link] [Online Appendix I] [Online Appendix II]
Additional Working Papers___________________________________________________________________________________
"On the Clock: Event History Modeling in the Study of Comparative Politics." [Link]
"Trade, Trains and Transnistria: Russian Influence in Moldova." [Link]
"Institutions for Political Survival." Presented at the 2007 American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL.
"On the Clock: Event History Modeling in the Study of Leadership Survival." Presented at the 2007 APSA Summer Methods Meeting.
"Distribution and Power in Petro-States." Presented at the 2007 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL.
"Trade Trains and Transnistria: Russian Influence in Moldova." Presented at the 2007 Association for the Study of Nationalities World Conference, New York, NY.
"Winning the European Beauty Contest: Comparing Economic and Political Reform in Moldova to Other EU Accession States." Presented at the 2006 International Scientific Conference "Process of European Integration: Opportunities, Costs, Risks and Rewards," State Institute of International Relations, Chisinau, Moldova.
"The Role of Reform in Attracting Foreign Direct Investment." (with Unislawa Wszolek) Presented at the 2004 International Studies Association -- Midwest Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO
"Sloshed in Translation: The Effect of National Alcoholic Beverages on Economic and Political Reform in post-Communist Countries." Presented at the 2004 International Studies Association – Midwest Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO
"Re-Conceptualizing the Social Requisites of Democratization: A Conditional Probability Analysis of Modernization Theory." Presented at the 2004 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, and the 2003 International Studies Association – Midwest Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO
"The Influence of Mixed Electoral Systems on Party Nomination Strategies: The Cases of Russia and Ukraine." Presented at the 2001 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, IL, and the 2001 International Studies Association – Midwest Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO
"Mixed Electoral Systems, Super Presidentialism, Candidate Recruitment and Political Party Development in Russia, Ukraine, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan." (with John T. Ishiyama) Presented at the 2000 International Studies Association – Midwest Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO
"The New Communists? An Analysis of the Rhetorical Strategies of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, 1993-1997." Presented at the 1998 International Studies Association – Midwest Annual Conference, Chicago, IL
Honors, Grants and Awards___________________________________________________________________________________
Ohio State University
2007 SBS Summer Survey Fellowship
2007 NSF Travel Grant for APSA Summer Methods Meeting
2005-2006 Fulbright Fellowship (Moldova)
2005 OIA Dissertation Travel Grant
2005 AGGRS Research Grant
2003 F.E. Peacock Award for best paper presented by a graduate student at the International Studies Association - Midwest conference
2003 Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) Fellowship
2001 F.E. Peacock Award for best paper presented by a graduate student at the International Studies Association - Midwest conference
2001 Distinguished University Fellowship
2001 Program for Excellence in Graduate Studies grant
Truman State University
2001 Phi Beta Kappa (academic honorary)
2001 Outstanding Student in Political Science
2000 National Champion, National Parliamentary Debate Association
1999-2000 Secretary, Truman State University Student Senate
1999 Phi Kappa Phi (academic honorary)
1999 Omicron Delta Kappa (leadership honorary)
1997 Pi Kappa Delta (speech and debate honorary)
1997 Truman Leadership Award
Institute of Youth
2000 Outstanding Student in Russian Studies
Professional Service__________________________________________________________________________________________
2002-2003 Executive Officer: International Studies Association – Midwest
2002-2004 Simulation Director: Historic Security Council, American Model United Nations
Discussant: 2002, 2003, 2004 International Studies Association -- Midwest ; 2003 American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies.
Invited Presentations_________________________________________________________________________________________
2007 Mercer University, Georgia, Department of Political Science
2006 Russia-English Lyceum, Tiraspol, Moldova, Department of English Language
2006 University of Balti, Moldova, Department of Education
2006 University of Comrat, Moldova. Department of Comparative Culture.
2005 Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research, Department of Political Science
Additional Research Experience________________________________________________________________________________
2006 Statistical Consultant, Peace Corps Moldova
2005 Special Guest Researcher, Kazakhstan Institute for Management, Economics and Strategic Planning (KIMEP)
2004 Research Assistant, Professor Tim Frye, Ohio State University
2004 Research Assistant, Professor Dean Lacy, Ohio State University
1998-2001 Research Assistant, Professor John Ishiyama, Truman State University
Teaching Experience_________________________________________________________________________________________
Instructor, POL 100: Introduction to Comparative Politics, The Ohio State University, Spring 2006
Instructor, Statistical and Formal Methods for Public Policy Analysis, CReDO, Summer 2006
Instructor, Professional Writing, IRIM, Spring 2006
Instructor, Terrorism, IRIM, Spring 2006
Instructor, POL 597.02: Terrorism, The Ohio State University, Fall 2004, Winter 2005, Spring 2005
Instructor, POL 597.02: Economics and Governance, The Ohio State University, Summer 2004
Teaching Assistant, POL 571: Theories of Democracy, The Ohio State University, Winter 2003
Teaching Assistant, POL 585: Chinese Politics, The Ohio State University, Fall 2003
Instructor, POL 554: Model United Nations, Truman State University, Spring 1999, Fall 2000
Languages_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Russian (4.5 years university level study); Polish (2 years university level study); Romanian (reading, elementary level)