JOHN MUELLER:
ITEMS RELATED TO "RADIOACTIVE HYPE," NATIONAL INTEREST,  SEP./OCT. 2007,
AND TO THE LATER DISCUSSION IN THE NOV./DEC. ISSUE

October 3, 2007

Paper assessing the difficulties confronting the atomic terrorist:

"Reactions and Overreactions to Terrorism: The Atomic Obsession." Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinios, August 31, 2007  pdf


The Wirz, Egger article mentioned in the November/December discussion:

Wirz, Christoph, and Emmanuel Egger. Use of nuclear and radiological weapons by terrorists? International Review of the Red Cross, September 2005  pdf




VARIOUS PREDICTIONS


Suggestions that nuclear proliferation will be slow:

"Incentives for Restraint: Canada as a Non-Nuclear Power," 11 Orbis 864-84 (Fall 1967)   pdf



Suggestions that the Cold War might be coming to an end:

1. "Containment and the Decline of the Soviet Empire: Some Tentative Comments on the End of the World As We Know It." Paper delivered at the International Studies Association Convention, Anaheim, CA, March 28, 1986  pdf

2. Version of this paper as rejected by The National Interest in 1986  pdf   In various versions, it was also rejected at around the same time by Foreign Policy, Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and The New Republic.

3. The argument eventually appeared in Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War, published by Basic Books in February 1989, on pp. 211-14  This book also suggests that major war--war among developed countries--may be becoiming obsolete. information about downloading this book

4. Later development of the argument: "What Was the Cold War About? Evidence from Its Ending," 119 Political Science Quarterly 609-31 (Winter 2004-05) see especially note 44   pdf



Suggestions that a war in Iraq would attract terrorists and could develop into a debacle:

"Should We Invade Iraq?"  A reason.com online debate with Brink Lindsey posted October 2002, and then published in Reason, January 2003 html

Op-ed suggesting U.S. may be heading toward debacle in Iraq. Rejected by Washington Post in July 2003  pdf



Suggestion that 9/11 might prove to be an aberration rather than a harbinger:

"Harbinger or Aberration?"  National Interest, Fall 2002, pp. 45-50  pdf

"False Alarms." Washington Post, Sunday, September 29, 2002, B7  pdf

More extensive development of the argument:  "Blip or Step Function?" Paper delivered at the International Studies Association Meetings, Portland, Oregon, February 27, 2003 pdf