JOHN MUELLER:  LINKS, PAPERS, AND PUBLICATIONS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB
September 22, 2008

Curriculum Vita
Biography
Profile in U.S. News & World Report
Courses
Dance Film Archive


Recent books

Overblown: How Politicians, the Terrorism Industry and Others Stoke National Security Fears, published in November 2006 by Free Press.  (amazon.com is currently selling book at a substantial discount)  information and website about this book

The Remnants of War (Cornell University Press, 2004; paperback edition with new preface, 2007) information

Capitalism, Democracy, and Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery (Princeton University Press, 1999) information

Policy and Opinion in the Gulf War (University of Chicago Press, 1994) information


Books available for free downloading in pdf format

Quiet Cataclysm: Reflections on the Recent Transformation of World Politics (HarperCollins, 1995) information about downloading

Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War (Basic Books, 1989) information about downloading

Also available free on pdf by arrangement with the author and publisher: Robert H. Johnson, Improbable Dangers: U.S. Conceptions of Threat in the Cold War and After (St. Martin's Press, 1997) information about downloading


Papers and articles available on the web

"The Costs and Consequences of Efforts to Prevent Proliferation." Paper delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, August 2008 pdf

"Evaluating the Terrorist Threat," Los Angeles Times Syndicate/Tribune Media, 19 May 2008  pdf  Published in Spanish as "EE UU exagera la amenaza de Al Qaeda" in El País (Spain), 2 June 2008 html

"Terrorphobia: Our False Sense of Insecurity," American Interest, May/June 2008, pp. 6-13   html

(with Mark G. Stewart) Assessing the Costs and Benefits of United States Homeland Security Spending. Research Report, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, University of Newcastle, Australia, 2008  pdf

(with Mark G. Stewart) "A risk and cost-benefit assessment of United States aviation security measures," 1 Journal of Transportation Security 143-59 (2008) pdf

(with Mark G. Stewart) "A Risk and Cost-Benefit Assessment of Australian Aviation Security Measures," 4 Security Challenges 45-61 (Spring 2008) pdf

"Terror, without terrorists," Ottawa Citizen, April 25, 2008, p. a15  html
also published as:  Terror threat is overblown, Montreal Gazette, April 29, 2008, p. a17  html

"The Quixotic Quest for Invulnerability: Assessing the Costs, Benefits, and Probabilities of Homeland Security."  Paper presented at the National Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, California, March 28, 2008  pdf

"Dead and deader," Los Angeles Times, January 20, 2008, p. M7 op-ed on the Rambo movies with additional material  pdf

"The Atomic Terrorist: Assessing the Likelihood." Paper presented at the Program for International Security Policy, University of Chicago, January 15, 2008   pdf

"Apocalypse Later," National Interest, Nov./Dec. 2007, pp. 19-20  html

"Radioactive Hype," The National Interest, Sep./Oct. 2007, pp. 59-65  pdf  pdf reformatted for easier reading

"Reactions and Overreactions to Terrorism: The Atomic Obsession." Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, August 31, 2007  pdf

"Fear Not: Notes from a naysayer," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2007, pp. 30-37. pdf

"The Demise of War and of Speculations about the Causes Thereof."  Paper presented at the National Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, Illinois, February 29, 2007. pdf

"Reacting to Terrorism: Probabilities, Consequences, and the Persistence of Fear."  Paper presented at the National Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, Illinois, February 28, 2007. pdf

"What If We Leave? When nightmare scenarios are used to justify endless war, it's time to wake up," American Conservative, February 26, 2007. html

"Terror doesn't add up," Guardian (UK) comment is free website, November 20, 2006. html

"Reflections on What, If Anything, 'Are We Safer' Might Mean," September 2006. Lead essay and discussion (Clark Kent Irwin, Veronique de Rugy, and Timothy Naftali) on Cato Unbound web site

"Is There A Still a Terrorist Threat? The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2006. Article and roundtable discussion (with James Fallows, Jessica Stern, Fawaz Gerges, and Paul Pillar)  on Foreign Affairs web site

"This Just In: Was Has Almost Ceased to Exist" pdf  Paper delivered at the International Studies Association Meetings, San Diego, California, March 24, 2006

"Force, Legitimacy, Success, and Iraq," 31 Review of International Studies 109-25 (2005) pdf    figure in Powerpoint

"The Iraq Syndrome," 84 Foreign Affairs 44-54 (November/December 2005) article in html without the figures  figures (updated) in Powerpoint

"Six Rather Unusual Propositions about Terrorism," Terrorism and Political Violence, Autumn 2005 article in pdf  The journal also published comments on the article by Richard Betts, Daniel Byman, and Martha Crenshaw.  Response to these comments in pdf

"Reactions and Overreactions to Terrorism." Paper presented at the Conflict Studies Conference, "Terrorism in History: The Strategic Impact of Terrorism from Sarajevo 1914 to 9/11," University of New Brunswick, October 14-15, 2005 pdf

Transcript from presentation on panel dealing with issues of risk (together with Paul Slovic and Detlof von Winterfeldt), Data Privacy and Integrity Advisory Committee, Department of Homeland Security, Bellingham, Washington, September 28, 2005 pdf (panel begins on page 16 of the document)

"Simplicity and Spook: Terrorism and the Dynamics of Threat Exaggeration." pdf  Paper presented at the National Convention of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 2, 2005 (later and longer version of the International Studies Perspectives article below)

"Simplicity and Spook: Terrorism and the Dynamics of Threat Exaggeration," 6 International Studies Perspectives, 155-73 (May 2005) pdf

Short paper: "This Just In: War Has Almost Ceased to Exist," January 2005. in English in pdf  in Spanish in pdf  related Powerpoint presentation  Related article from The New Republic, "The End of War?" (word) by Gregg Easterbrook, May 30, 2005

"What Was the Cold War About? Evidence from Its Ending," 119 Political Science Quarterly 609-31 (Winter 2004-05) pdf

"A False Sense of Insecurity?" Regulation, Fall 2004, pp. 42-46 pdf

"Why Isn't There More Violence?" 13 Security Studies 191-203 (Spring 2004) pdf

The Role of Business Virtue in Economic Development: Six Propositions Provoked in Part by P.T. Barnum with an Extrapolation to the Post-Communist Experience. Paper presented at the roundtable on "Political Economy and Socialism," Central European University, Budapest, Hungary, June 14, 2004 (pdf)

The Politics of Cutting and Running History News Network, May 24, 2004

Anti-War? Unenthusiastic About Kerry? The Recipe for a Bush Victory History News Network, May 3, 2004

"Policing the Remnants of War" (pdf), 40 Journal of Peace Research 507-18 (September 2003) (pdf)

"American Public Opinion and Military Ventures Abroad: Attention, Evaluation, Involvement, Politics, and the Wars of the Bushes." Paper delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, August 2003
paper in pdf  figures in Powerpoint.

Op-ed suggesting U.S was heading toward debacle in Iraq, July 2003. Rejected by Washington Post.

"Blip or Step Function?" Paper delivered at the International Studies Association Meetings, Portland, Oregon, February 27, 2003 pdf

"Should We Invade Iraq?" (html) A reason.com on line debate with Brink Lindsey posted October 2002, as published in Reason, January 2003

"False Alarms," Washington Post, September 29, 2002, p. B7  pdf

"Harbiner or Aberration?"  (pdf) National Interest, Fall 2002, pp. 45-50

St. Phineas: How P.T. Barnum helped create business ethics (htm) Reason, March 2001, pp. 54-57

The Banality of "Ethnic War": Yugoslavia and Rwanda (pdf) Paper delivered at the American Political Science Association Convention, Washington, DC, September 2, 2000 (longer and more detailed version of the International Security article below)

The Banality of "Ethnic War" (pdf) 25 International Security 42-70 (Summer 2000)

Public Opinion as a Constraint on U.S. Foreign Policy: Assessing the Perceived Value of American and Foreign Lives. Paper given at Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Los Angeles, CA, March 15, 2000

Democracy: Optimal Illusions and Grim Realities (htm) Research Monograph Series, Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine, 1999

The Rise, Decline, Shallowness, and Banality of Militant Nationalism in Europe: Hobbes, Thugs, "Ethnic Conflict," and the Future of Warfare (pdf) Paper delivered at the American Political Science Association Convention, Atlanta, GA, September 2, 1999

"Duelling Counterfactuals," in John Lewis Gaddis, Philip H. Gordon, Ernest R. May, and Jonathan Rosenberg (eds.), Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb: Nuclear Diplomacy Since 1945 (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 272-83 pdf (does not contain the notes)

Fifteen Propositions about American Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in an Era Free of Compelling Threats. Paper given at Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, April 19, 1996 (pdf)

American Public Opinion and the Gulf War: Some Polling Issues 57 Public Opinion Quarterly 80-91 (Spring 1993) (pdf)

Pearl Harbor: Military Inconvenience, Political Disaster 16 International Security 172-203 (Winter 1991-92) (pdf)

Is War Still Becoming Obsolete? Paper delivered at American Political Science Association Convention, Washington, DC, August 30, 1991 (pdf)

The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World 13 International Security 55-79 (Fall 1988) (pdf)

Trends in Political Tolerance 52 Public Opinion Quarterly 1-25 (Spring 1988) (pdf)

Containment and the Decline of the Soviet Empire: Some Tentative Comments on the End of the World As We Know It. Paper delivered at the International Studies Association Convention, Anaheim, CA, March 28, 1986 (pdf)

Reflections on the Vietnam Antiwar Movement and on the Curious Calm at the War's End (htm) in Peter Braestrup (ed.), Vietnam as History (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1984), pp. 151-57.

The Search fo the "Breaking Point" in Vietnam: The Statistics of a Deadly Quarrel, 24 International Studies Quarterly 497-531 (December 1980) pdf (includes comments on the article by Richard K. Betts and Frederick Z. Brown, and a rejoinder by John Mueller)

"Choosing Among 133 Candidates," 34 Public Opinion Quarterly 395-402 (Fall 1970) pdf

Musical theater

A Foggy Day at the Shaw Festival in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, 1998, 1999

One For My Baby