Political Science 8125: Dynamic Analysis

Time Series Modeling in Politics, Parts I & II


Class Readings

Brandt and Freeman, "Modeling Macro Political Dynamics"

Lebo, McGlynn and Koger, "Strategic Party Government: Party Influence in Congress, 1789-2000"

De Boef and Keele, "Taking Time Seriously"

Cortes et al (l974) "Systems Analysis for Social Scientists"

Goldberg (l958) "An Introduction to Difference Equations" CH2

Goldberg (l958) "An Introduction to Difference Equations" CH1

Hamilton (l994) "Time Series Analysis" CH 1-3

Patterson (2000) "An Introduction to Applied Econometrics"

Week II

Robertson & Tallman (1998) "Data Vintages"

Freeman (1990) "Systematic Sampling, Temporal Aggregation"

Goldstein (1991) "Reciprocity in Superpower Relations An Empirical Analysis"

Granger (1990) "Disaggregation in Econometric Modeling"

Granger et al (1995) "Systematic Sampling Temporal Aggregation Seasonal Adjustment"

Georgoutsos et al (1998) "Temporal Aggregation in Structural VAR Models"

Weeks III & IV

Huckfeldt (1982) "Dynamic Modeling"

Przeworski & Sprague (l986) "Paper Stones"

Richards (2000) "Political Complexity"

Sprague (1981) "One Party Dominance"

Freeman & Snidal (1982) "Diffusion, Development"

Enders Chp1

Richards (1993) "A Chaotic Model of Power"

Zinnes & Muncaster (1984) "Dynamics of Hostile"

Weeks V & VI

McCleary & Hay Chp. 2 (1980) "Applied Time Series"

McCleary & Hay Chp. 6 (1980) "Applied Time Series"

Hamilton Chps. 2 & 3 "Lag Operators"

Week VII

Lebo & Clarke (2000) "Modelling Memory"

Lebo, Walker & Clarke (2000) "You Must Remember"

Lebo (2003) "Dynamic Foreign Policy"

Brooks (1999) "Episodic Nonlinear Event"

Week IX

Maestas & Preuhs (2000) "Modeling Volatility"

Brehm & Gronke (2002) "History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential"

Hays (2003) "Exchange Rate Volatility and Democratization"

Dickinson and Lebo, "Reexamining the Growth of the Institutional Presidency"

Week X

Beck (1991) "Comparing Dynamic"

Brandt (2001) "A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model"

Keele and Kelly, "Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories"

Keele (2005) "Revisiting Dynamic Specification"

Pindyck & Rubenfeld (1991) "Econometric Models and Economic"

Mitchell (2002) "Presidential Uses of Force during the Cold W"

Week XI

Goldstein, Pevehouse, Gerner & Telhami (2001) "Reciprocity, Triangularity"

Weeks XII and XIII

Murray (1994) "A Drunk and Her Dog"

Ostrom and Smith (1993) "Error Correction"

Box-Steffensmeier & Tomlinson (2000) "Fractional integration methods"

Week XIV

Campbell (1993) "Weather Forecasters Should be so Accurate"

Greene (1993) Forewarned before Forecast"