Political Science 8125: Dynamic Analysis (Time Series Modeling in Politics, Part I & II)


Bios of faculty and fellow class members

Jan Box-Steffensmeier

I love time series and hope my enthusiasm will rub off by the end of class. Getting to teach grad students, especially methods, is definitely one of the very best parts of my job. I'm fortunate to get to teach with Jon Pevehouse and John Freeman and hope you enjoy the class as much as I know I will. My other interests include duration models and I'm looking forward to finally holding my published book in this area, which was written with Brad Jones, in my hands this month. In American politics, I study Congress, elections, and public opinion.

Web page: http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jbox/jboxstef.htm
Email: jboxstef+@osu.edu

John Freeman

(Ph.D., University of Minnesota, l978) is Distinguished McKnight University Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. He has been a visiting professor at the University Michigan and a consultant to international businesses, banks, and law firms. Among his honors are the Morse-Alumni All-University and College of Liberal Arts’ Distinguished Teaching Awards. Freeman is the author of Democracy and Markets: The Politics of Mixed Economies (Cornell University Press) and the co-author of Three Way Street: Strategic Reciprocity in World Politics (University of Chicago Press). The first of these books won the International Studies Association’s Quincy Wright Award; it has been translated into Chinese. Freeman also has edited three volumes of Political Analysis (University of Michigan Press) and (co)authored more than twenty research articles in journals in North America and Europe. Many of Freeman’s research projects have been supported by the National Science Foundation. In recent years, the Bank Austria Foundation and the Austrian Ministry of Science have supported his research. Freeman has held many professional posts including the Presidency of the American Political Science Association’s Section for Political Methodology and the Co-Chair of the Midwest Political Science Association’s Annual Meeting. In addition, he has been a member of the National Science Foundation’s Political Science research panel and of seven major editorial boards. The analytic foci of Freeman’s current research are the multiple, dynamic political-economic equilibria produced by democratic market systems. The substantive focus of his work is the implication of market globalization—particularly financial globalization—for democracy.



Web page: http://www.polisci.umn.edu/faculty/freeman/
Email: freeman@polisci.umn.edu

Jon Pevehouse

Hi. Well, as I mentioned on Day 1 of class - if it involves international relations, I'm a fan. I received my PhD in 2000 [or 1 b.t.: before Tressel] from OSU. I have many fond memories of Columbus, especially taking time series from Jan and John in 1996. I feel very humbled that they have allowed me to come back and teach the class with them - it is a great experience and everyone will learn _a lot_! My research interests include democratization and international organizations; trade and conflict; US institutions and foreign policy; reciprocity and conflict processes. Outside of my polisci existence, I enjoy spending time with my wife and two dogs [pictures to follow soon]. My wife and I are expecting our first child this summer so we are very excited about becoming parents! Finally, and perhaps most noteworthy, I am from Kansas and attended KU. This means come March, I will be slightly crazed as the NCAA tournament is in full swing.



Web page: http://polisci.wisc.edu/users/pevehous/
Email: pevehous@polisci.wisc.edu

Seden Akcinaroglu

I am a third-year student studying comparative politics and international political economy. I am interested in the role of expectations in explaining economic outcomes.


Brandon Bartels

Brandon Bartels is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Political Science at Ohio State University. A student of American Politics, he possesses specialized research and teaching interests in three subfields: (1) judicial politics, Supreme Court decision-making, and the interaction between the Supreme Court and Congress; (2) legislative politics, legislative organization and behavior; and (3) public opinion and institutional evaluation, with a particular focus on how people perceive and assess U.S. national institutions. Bartels also has methods interests in areas such as duration models, models for panel data, structural equation modeling, and experimental methodology. Currently, he is the Junior Methods Fellow through the department's Program in Statistics and Methodology (PRISM), directed by Jan Box-Steffensmeier. Bartels plans on conducting dissertation research on the scope of Supreme Court decision-making and the extent to which Supreme Court Justices are constrained by certain structural considerations.



Web page: http://polisci.osu.edu/grads/bartels/
Email: bartels.20@osu.edu

Ray Block

  • status:
  • doctoral candidate
  • major:
  • american politics
  • minor:
  • political psychology
  • subfields:
  • public opinion and political participation; race, ethnicity, and gender politics broader methods
  • interests:
  • experimental design, geographical information systems (gis), factor analysis and structural equation modeling
  • why i am taking this course:
  • reason #1: because you are teaching it.
  • reason #2: because i want to learn more about dynamic factor modeling (hopefully, i can incorporate what i learn into my dissertation research).


Web page: http://polisci.osu.edu/grads/block/
Email: block.49@osu.edu

Jason Brozek


I'm a sixth-semester PhD student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, specializing in international relations and research methods. My dissertation (which is nowhere near being proposed, much less begun) is on markets and economic exchange functioning as information sources for bargaining games. Stacey, Erika and I ("the methods posse") (shut up) are also going to be working on a project that looks at competing domestic/international incentives for a president to use his ability to manipulate public opinion. I've been married for just about 2 1/2 years, or since the Saturday before Melissa and I moved from Nebraska to Madison. I also fancy myself a bit of a cyclist, and actually just accepted an invitation to race for the new Velo Madison road team this coming season.


Email: brozek@polisci.wisc.edu

Young-Im Cho


Born: South Korea
BS in Financial Engineering, Columbia University
MPA from School of Int'l and Public Affairs, Columbia Univ

I was born and raised in South Korea and moved to the Unites States about 12 years ago. I'm a first year graduate student at the Univ. of Illinois, specializing in Interantional Relations. My specific interst is in International Conflict and International Political Economy. Before moving to Champaign, I stdied in New York City. I earned a BS degree in Financial Engineering and a Masters in Public Affairs degree in Economic Policy from Columbia Unviersity. While in New York City, I also worked as an intern for one year in the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations where I discovered my interest in international and ethnic conflicts.

In my spare time, I enjoy surfing....not on a surfboard but on Internet. I am addicted to the West Wing.


Email: ydcho@uiuc.edu

Delton Daigle


Delton T. Daigle - (BA, Brock University 1996, MA McGill University 2002), Ph.D. Student. Delton Daigle joined the OSU graduate program in the 2002-2003 year as a PhD student following the completion of a Master's Degree in Political Science at Montreal's McGill University. At McGill, Delton's research interests were Canadian politics more broadly and social value change and declining public attachments to political institutions more specifically. While at McGill, Delton worked as a graduate researcher for the Canadian Elections Study under the supervision of Dr. Elisabeth Gidengil. Since coming to OSU, Delton has remained interested in mass behavior, but has broadened his interests into cognitive processes and political psychology. He currently studies American public opinion and voting behavior under the guidance of Prof. Herb Weisberg, with methodological interests in the use of artificial intelligence techniques for survey research. While not studying, Delton is a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, plays intramural ice-hockey at OSU, and is a motorcycle enthusiast.


Email: Delton.Daigle@polisci.sbs.ohio-state.edu

David Darmofal

I recently completed my dissertation and am currently a Visiting Assistant Professor at the University of Illinois. My substantive interests include voting behavior and public opinion. My methodological interests include spatial econometrics and event history analysis. My dissertation brings these interests together by using spatial econometrics to examine voter turnout in presidential elections since 1828. Substantively, the findings highlight the critical time-varying roles that political elites and political institutions have played in shaping voter turnout. Methodologically, the dissertation demonstrates that OLS does not accurately model political behavior when data are spatially dependent.

Email: darmofal@ux1.cso.uiuc.edu

Jim DeLaet


Full Name: Celestian J. DeLaet
Major: International Relations
Minor: Methods
Pets: 1 dog, a chihuahua named Rico
Favorite Teams: Nebraska Cornhuskers, Denver Broncos, New York Mets
Dream Job: Recruiting Coordinator for Nebraska Football

I'm particularly interested in American Foreign Policy, the Role of Congress in Foreign Policy, and Executive-Legislative interactions on Foreign Policy. Dr. Pevehouse said, "If it's IR, I like it." My motto would be, "If it's American Foreign Policy, I like it." As far as methodological proclivities, I like getting getting my hands on datasets.

On the personal side, I'm originally from Nebraska and hadn't lived outside the state until I moved to Ohio for graduate school. I was married last summer at Lake Tahoe, which was a lot of fun. Besides politics, my other love is the sport of college football. Saturdays in the fall are pretty much shot because of it.


Email: jdelaet@juno.com

Mike Findley

I'm a second year student at the University of Illinois. I am majoring in IR and minoring in Comparative. I am interested in intrastate violence as well as third-party intervention into civil wars.


Email: mfindley@uiuc.edu

Erika Fowler

Bio: I am a third-year graduate student at Wisconsin, where I study American and research methods. My substantive interests include political behavior, political communication, and parties. Much of my time here at Madison (in addition to grad school) has been spent working on the Wisconsin NewsLab project, which tracks local news election coverage across the country Ive heard way too many local news reporter jokes! My undergraduate years were spent at St. Olaf College in Northfield, MN where I majored in mathematics and political science, and before attending the UW, I was a bonds analyst for a brokerage in Minneapolis. I am originally from Denver, CO, so naturally I love to ski (though the Midwest living has made this a little more difficult), and I am a huge Bronco fan (though Green Bay takes a distant second). I also enjoy swimming, movies, and reality TV (thanks to my compatriots Stacey and Jason).



Web page: http://polisci.wisc.edu/users/pevehous/
Email: efranklin@polisci.wisc.edu

Roman Ivanchenko


Name: Roman Ivanchenko
Birthdate: October 20th, 1979
Birthplace: Kishinev, Republic of Moldova, USSR.

In 1996, after I graduated from a high school in Moldova, my family immigrated to the US, and all the fun started. Aside from such negatives as the drinking age limit and an excruciatingly painful inability to vote, I must say that I learned to enjoy good food, hot water, and a warm home (until I get my heating bill). Upon arrival, I immediately enrolled into a local Central Florida high school, which added two more years to my irresponsible juvenile existence. I knew that I could achieve maturity only by going to college, so in 1998, I joined the Florida State University, which between winning the national championships and being ranked as a number one party school for several years was able to grant me a degree in political science and criminology. When it came time for me to decide what to do with my life after the graduation, I had several options, and I chose what at that time seemed to be the less painful one: I stayed with the academia. Actually, as far back as I could remember, I always wanted to study politics, so I guess I am just following my childhood dreams, though, I did not think that they would turn out so dark and twisted. I got my citizenship and an ability to vote in 2002 only to learn that voting is irrational...Is there nothing sacred in this field?! I major in American Politics with concentration in Judicial and Legislative Politics. My minor is stats and formal theory. Other than studying, I TA for Polisci 101. My academic activities leave me very little time for anything else, thus, I cannot dedicate myself to any hobbies other than trying to stay warm in this horrible weather.


Email: ivanchenko.1@osu.edu

Justin Lance

My name is Justin Lance a second year graduate student in comparative politics at Ohio State. My research interests are primarily in political economy and how leaders decisions affect economic outcomes. I am currently working on how exchange rate fluctuations affect regime change and on political business cycles where macroeconomic constraints, such as the central banks for CFA countries in francophone West Africa, could possibly affect political influence of economic factors. More generally I am interested in how democratic versus authoritarian leaders use manipulation of the economy and how people perceive of these manipulations. I am currently considering pre-dissertation work on economic policy formation in Indonesia compared to Nigeria, taking leadership as the reason for divergent paths, although this is only an idea at the time.



Email: Justin.Lance@polisci.sbs.ohio-state.edu

Erin McAdams

I am a second-year Ph.D. student at The Ohio State University, majoring in American Politics and minoring in Political Methodology. Within American politics, I am primarily interested in political parties, voting behavior and political participation. In particular, I am interested in the interaction between partisanship and gender in voting behavior and political participation.

Email: mcadams.19@osu.edu

Stacey Pelika

I'm a third-year graduate student at Wisconsin, specializing in American politics and research methods. My specific interest is the intersection of political behavior, political communication, and public policy. Before moving to Madison I earned a master's degree in education policy from Stanford and worked there for four years as a project coordinator for the evaluation of a school reform initiative. However, I'm not a native Californian - I'm originally from the Twin Cities and did my undergraduate work at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota. (In a future project, Erika and I will determine the mechanism behind the pattern of my leaving a state and the election of a wrestler/bodybuilder type as governor two years later.) In my spare time I enjoy watching television (The Simpsons and, embarrassingly, both The Apprentice and American Idol), movies, and music. I would also mention that I run, but I feel that is too grand a claim in the presence of local Ironman Jason Brozek.

Email: pelika@polisci.wisc.edu

Elizabeth Radziszewski

I am a third-year student studying international relations. Specifically, I'm interested in 1) civil wars and in 2)factors that determine public support for EU expansion.



Email: radzisze@students.uiuc.edu

Corwin Smidt


I was born and raised in Grand Rapids, Michigan – hometown of Gerald R. Ford, Amway, and Al Green to name a few. There I attended Calvin College for my undergraduate and have since managed to move south to the tropical climate of Columbus, Ohio. Here I study American politics with a concentration in public opinion, voting behavior, and methodology. Beyond political science, I am a fan of Wes Anderson movies, F1 racing, the St. Louis Cardinals, old Herman Miller furniture, and especially McDonald’s coffee and apple pies.


Email: smidt.2@osu.edu

David Souder


David Souder is a 2nd year doctoral student in Strategic Management and Organization at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management. His research interests include the formulation and implementation of merger and acquisition (M&A) strategies, the trade-offs inherent in maximizing long-term vs. short-term corporate performance, and the performance implications of strategies that emphasize one time horizon over another.


Email: dsouder@csom.umn.edu

Tze Kwang Teo

I am orginally from Singapore, the small island and city-state that is really, really not part of China. I arrived in the United States in 1998, and obtained my BA in Poli Sci and History from the University of Michigan in Fall 2001. I then proceeded to spend two very eventful years in Vanderbilt University's (still in limbo?) graduate program, before transferring to UIUC in Fall 2003. My main academic interest is in world politics, particularly interstate conflict processes. My current research focuses on the expansion of war; a secondary but related project deals with the utility of the "dyadic" approach to modeling interstate interactons. Thus, I am also interested in research methods. And in this area I enjoy thinking (and hopefully writing as well) about the kinds of assumptions research designs and choice of statistical or formal techniques make about our phenomena of interest, and what their resultant conceptual and theoretical consequences are.



Webpage: http://kwangteo.brudderhood.org/

Kendall Thompson

Hello all. My name is Kendall Thompson. I am a 3rd year grad. student at THE Ohio State Univ. My interests appear to be taking the form of bottom up approaches to American Politics. Also, I really enjoy putting lists of numbers through some combination of abstract symbols, which then give me some form of measure on how those numbers go together. Then, I like to take those measures and give detailed descriptions, and make inferences on social phenomena. FUN!



Email: thompson.833@osu.edu

Burcu Ucaray

Burcu Ucaray (Burju – “c” is pronounced j as in jam)
BA and MA, Bilkent University 2000 and 2002.

I am from Istanbul, Turkey. I am a second-year IR major. I am interested in IPE, democratization, bureaucratic reform, international organizations, and domestic-international linkage.



Email: ucaray@uiuc.edu

Domionique Walsh


I'm second year grad student in political science at the University of Minnesota. I study American politics, particularly public policy and women in electoral politics.


Email: wals0247@umn.edu

Unisia Wszolek

I'm a political science third-year majoring in international relations. My two specializations are political economy and security. I'm particularly interested in the crisis signaling literature and the connections with compromise. I am also interested in the literature on compliance with international organizations. My minor is in methods.

Email: uwszolek@hotmail.com